Forecasting, policy simulation and the economy-wide closure

A central bank needs a forecast it can defend to its board, a way to test a policy path before it is announced, and an economy-wide model consistent with the fiscal frame the Ministry of Finance is using. EDIS provides all three on one calibration.

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The workflow

From data to the policy scenario

The forecast, the scenario and the economy-wide closure sit on the same national accounts and the same SAM, so a monetary scenario and a fiscal scenario can be compared rather than argued about.

Model chainCentral Bank

01National accounts and survey dataGoverned inputs from the statistics office, with provenance and vintage recorded

02FINEXThe macro framework: growth, inflation, the external balance and the medium-term path

03Macro forecastingThe baseline forecast and its confidence, with the assumptions stated

04External sectorBalance of payments, exchange-rate pass-through and reserves

05Financial conditionsCredit, interest rates and the financial sector linkage

06Scenario simulationPolicy paths and shocks tested against the baseline

07CDCGEThe economy-wide closure: what the scenario does to output, prices and incomes

08Research workspaceSaved scenarios, comparison and a publishable record of every run

Questions it answers

The questions a central bank brings

Outlook

What is the growth outlook under lower commodity prices?

FINEX runs the baseline and the commodity scenario side by side, with the external assumptions explicit.

Inflation

How does a depreciation feed into inflation?

The exchange-rate pass-through is modelled through the external sector into prices, with the elasticity stated and sourced.

Policy

What happens if we hold the rate for another two quarters?

A policy path is simulated against the baseline and compared, with the difference attributed rather than asserted.

Consistency

Is our forecast consistent with the fiscal frame?

The bank and the ministry can run on the same calibration, so a difference between two forecasts is a difference in assumptions, not in data.

Economy-wide

What does this do beyond the aggregates?

CDCGE closes the economy and reports sectoral output, factor incomes and prices, not just the headline.

Research

Can we publish from it?

Every run carries its model, version, data, scenario and run ID, so a published result can be reproduced.

What is included

What a central bank deployment carries

FINEX and the macro forecasting estate
CDCGE for the economy-wide closure
Trade and external sector analysis
Financial sector linkage
Scenario management, comparison and sensitivity analysis
A research workspace with a reproducible run record
EDIS AI agents for the macro and trade estate
Governed data integration with the statistics office
Institutional APIs within the licence
Country calibration to your accounts, SAM and parameters
Technical training and certification for the research department
An annual model review, and priority support with a named team

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Recommended licence

From per year

Institutional pricing is contracted and reflects model configuration, national data integration, calibration, training and support rather than a seat count. Implementation is quoted separately, and development access pricing is applied where the country’s income classification allows.

Next step

Test it against your own forecast round

We run EDIS on your data and your question, and show where it agrees with your current framework and where it does not.

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