Scenarios, not one-off answers
A policy question is rarely settled by a single number. The scenario builder lets an analyst vary a shock, run it, save it, clone it, compare it against the baseline and against a colleague’s scenario, and download the comparison.
Sixteen shock families
Shocks are entered in the units a ministry uses, converted by the platform, and recorded in the run provenance exactly as entered.
Government expenditure
By vote, programme or sector, with a phasing profile across the framework period.
Tax rates
VAT, income tax, excise, customs duty, with revenue and incidence effects.
Interest rates
Domestic and external borrowing costs, feeding the debt path and financing mix.
Exchange rate
Level and path, with pass-through to prices, imports and debt service.
Oil price
Import bill, transport cost, generation cost and fiscal effects.
Commodity prices
Export earnings, fiscal revenue and producer income by commodity.
Public investment
Envelope, allocation rule and project set, appraised and optimised through PIAS.
Agricultural productivity
Yield and area response to inputs, irrigation, extension and research.
Energy investment
Generation mix, transmission build and last-mile access programmes.
Road investment
Corridor and feeder packages, with maintenance funding held separate.
Trade policy
Non-tariff measures, rules of origin, partner sets and integration scenarios.
Tariffs
Schedule changes by product and partner, including AfCFTA phase-downs.
Climate shock
Warming pathway, rainfall variability and discrete extreme events.
Population growth
Fertility, mortality, migration and urbanisation paths.
Health coverage
Coverage targets, workforce expansion and user-fee policy.
Education enrolment
Enrolment targets, transition rates and pupil–teacher ratios.
What an analyst can do with a scenario
- Create from a template, a registered question or a blank sheet
- Clone an existing scenario and vary one shock
- Run through the job queue, without blocking the interface
- Compare two or more scenarios against each other and the baseline
- Save into a project, with the full parameter set
- Share with named colleagues inside the organisation
- Download results as Excel, CSV, Word, PDF, charts and maps
Scenario comparison — demonstration
Demonstration data GDP deviation from baseline, per cent.
The run queue
A scenario is submitted, not executed inline. The queue gives every run an identifier, a state and a place in the result store, so nothing is lost when a browser is closed.
Queued Running Validating Completed Failed Non-converged
Failure is reported, not smoothed
If a model does not converge, EDIS says so and shows the diagnostics. It does not fall back to a language model, an extrapolation or a previous run.